What would you say to President Gingirch?
The polls are starting to come out now about the 2008 election. I must say that I am not too surprised by what they say about the republican party and its direction.
One of the polls I saw was from ARG. They had produced results from the first 4 states which will have either primaries or caucuses. Polling results and the actual election results can vary depending on if the election is a primary type election or an Iowa caucus. I’ll bet that there will be some significant differences between actual caucus states, i.e. Nevada and Iowa. So hang on it could be a real roller coaster ride to the nomination.
My sense is a real outsider could make it this election. It might be the year of a Mitt Romney or Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. There’s even talk of former Virginia Governor and US Senator George Allen running. This race is totally wide open.
Here’s what ARG says so far:
Iowa: Giuliani is first, McCain is second and Gingrich is third.
Nevada: Giuliani is first, McCain is second and Gingrich is third again.
South Carolina: McCain is first in this conservative state, Giuliani is now second and Gingrich third.
Finally, the all important New Hampshire has, McCain, Giuliani and Gingrich.
What this all tells me is there’s room for others to make a move. A more conservative candidate could push McCain and Gingrich aside, while a more moderate and flashier candidate could sweep away Giuliani. Nobody has a lock on this nomination. It will be exciting!
Labels: '07 Polls, New Hampshire, primary, republicans
Keep an eye on Senator Brownback. He's got the credentials to gain support of the GOP's right wing that currently controls the party and opposes Bush on Iraq. That opposition could neutralize much of the foreign policy debate in the '08 Presidential race since both nominees will take similar positions. GOP primary candidates who support Bush's Iraq policy (e.g. McCain, Guliani)are goners from the get-go, which is also why Hillary Clinton is problematic as a candidate given her past pro-war votes. Yes, Bush is such a disaster that he's taking down Republicans AND Democrats who went along with the debacle.
Al Gore, of course, never did so.
The only winning strategy for the Republicans in the wake of the disatrous fiasco of Iraq is to shift the debate to domestic issues. Brownback conceivably could be the one to do that. And Gore would be the best candidate to counter with a shift back to global issues, most importantly, climate change. His argument: America CAN reclaim its leadership position in the world by working to solve the most pressing issue facing the planet.
He'd beat Brownback hands down on that one.