Saturday, August 26, 2006

ARE ALL BETS OFF? Except for Al Gore!

You know there are these betting sites on the internet and they are beginning to show the odds. I have been looking at the various results and developing some theories on why people are wagering their money the way they do?

First of all, I don't think this on-line betting predicts necessarily the correct/
accurate outcome for a specific election. But, these sites, like the and the Iowa Electronic Markets, are two examples of "real-money futures markets". People put their money where their mouths are and vote in essence on who they think will become the next President of the United States. If they pick correctly they make some money, sometimes a lot of money.

Right now the gambling looks something like this for the Democrats and republicans: Hillary R. Clinton, Al Gore and Bill Richardson, in that order. For the republicans it is: John McCain, George Felix Allen, Rudy Giuliani and Sam Brownback. I would be extremely surprised if this were to remain the same on the Democrats’ side. For the republicans McCain might just get it. He’s on the front page of the Washington Post Magazine this week and the article is very positive. He’s a war hero, social moderate and fiscal conservative. He’s the republican’s anti-Bush. McCain is also attracting lots of support from republican insiders and big wheels. And his selection will drive the Democrats selection process.

With a McCain nomination the Dems will need to put up someone who has good military credentials, like Al Gore. Gone will be candidates like John Edwards, John Warner, Evan Bayh and countless others who don’t have that National Security Experience that Al Gore’s already got on his vita. Anyone of these fine men could be V-P, of course, but not number one on the ticket. Hillary Rodman Clinton falls into this category too. No amount of condemning Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will ever help her overcome her lack of hands on experience in National Security affairs, or as some of my friends from Kansas and Missouri would say, her lack of judgment.

Check back soon and I will be giving you a rundown on why McCain will probably beat those other candidates, and who will be their V-P nominee. The Drumbeat continues!!


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